With dynamic economies, a quarter of the world's land and 40% of human population, Brazil, Russia, India and China (the BRIC countries) have the potential to dominate the world economy by the middle of this century. What is the role of demographics that will determine each country's capacity for robust growth? Each one of the BRICs faces a different population dynamic. Taken together, their demographics are instrumental to the growth of the international economy.
Demography is an often overlooked, slow-to-change input in the economic growth equation that determines long term prospects for nations and their regions. The conference combines the insights of demographers, SAIS faculty experts on each country, and market-focused expertise. What are the demographic trends in each country that will constrain or propel growth in the decades to come? What are geopolitical, social, and environmental factors that will affect the realization of each one's potential? How are markets distilling available knowledge and how is this informing current behavior as well as long term trends?
Regional policy experts, demographers and leading market analysts will confront each others assumptions and predictions to reveal novel problems and opportunities in the four pivotal countries. The interplay of demographic, regional and market perspectives will yield a more complete picture of each country's likely trajectory. The contrasts and similarities across the four BRICS will inform analysis and policy on global economic growth. Lessons learned will be useful for researchers, policy makers and market participants.
Program Agenda
8:30 -9:00
Registration and breakfast
9:00 -9:15
Welcome
Master of Ceremonies: Riordan Roett, Director of Western Hemisphere Studies Program
Dean's welcome: Jessica P. Einhorn, Dean
9:15 -10:15
Session 1: Brazil Session Lead Speaker on Demography: Joseph Potter, University of Texas [Powerpoint presentation]
SAIS Faculty chair/discussant: Riordan Roett, Director of Western Hemisphere Studies Program
External discussant: Arthur Rubin, ING Financial Markets LLC
10:15 - 11:15
Session 2: Russia Session Lead Speaker on Demography: Sergei Zakharov, Moscow Higher School of Economics [Powerpoint presentation]
Faculty chair/discussant: Charles Gati, Interim Director, Russian and Eurasian Studies
External discussant: Kathy Jeavons, Ketchum
11:15 - 11:30
Coffee Break
11:30 -12:30
Session 3: India
Session Lead Speaker on Demography: S. Irudaya Rajan, Center for Development at Kerala [Powerpoint presentation]
Faculty chair/discussant: Arvind Subramanian, Senior Research Faculty South Asia Studies
External discussant: David Good, Albright Stonebridge Group
