Third Party Incentives
Coercive or Non-Coercive Initiatives
Examples Initiatives are actions taken by third parties or participants in a conflict, to prevent the development of a destructive conflict, to reverse an escalation or worsening spiral of violence, or to ease tensions that may exist in conflict prone regions. The nature of a specific initiative should be determined by the cultural and contextual factors specific to each case, and adapted to address early warning signs and indicators where such systems are in place. There are a number of questions that should be considered before any preventive steps are taken. These are summarized in the following table: Questions to Consider Before Taking Action At what stage is the conflict should the intervention occur? Is intervention appropriate? What kind of initiative should be taken? What degree of involvement should take place and how does the intervener avoid entrapment? Who should take the initiative? What are the interests of the third party intervener? What are the goals of an intervention? - Suppressing violence
- Removing the weapons through which violence may be carried out
- Addressing the issues in dispute by engaging the parties in dialogue or negotiations
- Creating or strengthening the procedures and institutions through which such negotiations can be regularized in permanent institutions such as governments
- Alleviating the egregious socioeconomic conditions that provide tempting occasions for incitement to violence
- Modifying perceptions and feelings of mistrust and suspicion among the parties
How can an initiative be sustained? What are the costs of an initiative and its chances for success? Is there a plan B if an initiative fails? What are the advantages of doing nothing? Does an initiative have political backing?
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Third Party Incentives Some of these questions are answered by Rothchild in a forthcoming paper about the Incentives available to third parties in relation to the different Phases of Conflict. Third party incentives are defined as "structural arrangements or distributive or symbolic rewards or punishments used by third parties to encourage a target state or movement to shift its priorities in a desired direction." Rothchild sees conflict as moving through a dynamic process of five Phases in terms of levels of conflict activity in relations between groups. The following list identifies problems that need to be addressed at each phase of the conflict and suggests initiatives that third parties could take to prevent further escalation: - Potential Conflict Phase:
Presence of structural and symbolic aspects conflict under surface; increased elite expression of grievances; real of imagined memories of past suffering.
Incentives: - Facilitate communication between parties to prevent information failures.
- Build confidence in a common future; facilitate inter-elite reciprocity & exchange.
- Finance development among economically disadvantaged groups.
- Push for more inclusive resource allocation and a representational political system.
- Gestation Phase:
increased politicization of conflict, rising tensions and military mobilization, struggle over control of resources or state, ethnic or group scapegoating, changes in balance of power and narrowing space for compromise.
Incentives: - Exhort parties to change behavior through persuasion.
- Provide reliable information through early warning systems.
- Use diplomatic incentives - good offices & fact-finding commissions, side payments.
- Facilitate of negotiation process: Conciliation, mediation, arbitration, aid cutoffs, and exclusion from international organizations.
- Sanctions or humanitarian aid.
- Triggering and Escalation Phase:
Triggering of mass violence and major shifts in conflict relations, increased polarization and outbreaks of organized violence, rise in rhetoric communicated by elites; group demands increasingly non-negotiable.
Incentives: - Influence parties by exerting pressure to desist from further provocative acts.
- Take a traditional role as peacekeepers.
- Prevent future escalations of conflict by promoting negotiations.
- Act as strong third party mediator.
- Post Conflict Phase:
Major violence has ended but societal and inter-group relations are missing; Uncertainty over commitment and a breakdown in communications; polarization, communal fears and predatory behavior; self-interested and ambitious elites.
Incentives: - Increase communication and reduce uncertainties.
- Assist in the rebuilding of institutions.
- Halt emergence of new rounds of violence.
- Design strategies that induces cooperation and future inter-ethnic relations.
- Create "Iterative" bargaining environment.
- Military/Security Phase:
Vulnerabilities in cease-fires and de-mobilization phase; need for the implementation of promises and commitments, lack of economic or institutional resources; Inter-group fears and misperceptions.
Incentives: - Finance and oversee disarmament & demobilization.
- Retrain police and army and reformulate role.
- Reduce vulnerabilities by providing information to reduce misperceptions and by manipulating pressures to alter pay-off structures.
- Generate economic opportunities.
- Assist in post-conflict elections.
- Prevent future conflicts by promoting democratic institutions.
Coercive or Non-Coercive Initiatives As the list above indicates, third party incentives can be coercive or non-coercive and their aim is to raise the opportunity costs of continuing on a destructive path through changing parties’ calculation of costs and benefits. Sometimes “packages” of coercive and non-coercive incentives can be applied, with coercive ones becoming more dominant as the costs of altering preferences and the intensity of conflict rises. Rothchild in Wermester & Sriram indicates that non-coercive incentives are more likely to result in a durable peace and if coercive methods are applied it is important to follow up with aid and political reforms in order to prevent a relapse of violence. Non-Coercive
There are four main types of non-coercive incentives: - Purchase - Side payments that alter pay-off structures.
- Insurance - Promises or guarantees to uphold agreements, especially in relation to the participation of weaker parties.
- Legitimation - Incentives that stabilize commitment to democratization in post-conflict phase.
- Economic Support - Promises of financing that can alleviate competition over scarce resources or compensate the "loser." New findings show that high levels of poverty has proved to increase the occurrence of civil war.
Coercive There are three main types of coercive incentives used by third parties: - Diplomatic Pressure - Partially coercive but still a "cooperation incentive" Includes political, economic, strategic, and military policy approaches.
- Sanctions - A punitive strategy designed to alter behavior.
- Military Intervention - Used by third party especially to strengthen political initiative; can decisively alter the balance of forces
Examples of Initiatives In targeting specific problems in a society, Conflict Prevention initiatives are similar in many cases to post-conflict peacebuilding. However, while peacebuilding is challenged by the task of rebuilding a society after it has been more or less completely destroyed, Conflict Prevention has to target problem areas within a working (and often adversarial) political system or structure, with the aim of changing the structure in order to prevent future problems. Conflict Prevention and peacebuilding are therefore faced with similar problems and tasks, but different contexts and political environments in which they operate. Below are eight types of initiatives that may be taken to improve a situation in a country: - Community Building
Developing a sense of coherence among parties that have had conflict in the past in order to promote a sense of community within a local geographic entity (such as village, town, city…). These kinds of pre-conflict initiatives often fall under the rubric of civil society building, and can include simple activities such as building a gym, designing a park, or other cultural activities that allow people to congregate and interact (regardless of ethnicity or religion), hence improving the sense of community. It could also be efforts by different communities to work together to fill common needs such as repairing religious, historic or cultural sites, building schools or orphanages, industries, farms or other cooperative endeavors. These activities could help to develop a sense of common responsibility and to share the effort of meeting mutual needs. They are also important to reconciliation)
- Economic Development
Dealing with economic disparities through development programs can help both disadvantaged and advantaged parties, by reducing inequalities, increasing earning power and creating a sense of self-worth. On the individual or group levels this can include legislation that equalizes the playing field for businesses and entrepreneurs regardless of size, the socio-economic development of disadvantaged communities, the creation of employment opportunities or vocational training, as well as the distribution of aid in order to alleviate the feeling of alienation.
- Demobilization
When a situation is clearly drifting towards an outbreak of violence, demobilization programs have to be based on strong incentives or force in order for combatants to give up their hopes of future victory. Paul Collier in Berdal and Malone writes that individuals often enlist in armies that fight civil wars because it provides an easy source of income, but as they become part of the group, their cause becomes more collective. Armies could run out of recruits if a source of income were provided for unemployed young men in such societies. Demobilization can also be applied as part of a peace accord or cease-fire agreement, as a preventive measure to reduce the risk of further violence.
- The Rule of Law
The legal system in a society may or may not contribute to the conflict, depending whether it is open and fair to all groups or particularly biased in favor of one. When the rule of law is ineffective in mitigating conflict, the process/system may have to be altered. The legal system, through legislation, judicial process or executive order, can be used to diffuse/defuse tension between conflicting parties.
- Preventive Deployment
If there are clear signals of impending violence or a worsening conflict, troops, police or security forces of third parties may be sent into a region to safeguard the population against violence. Preventive Deployment is usually a proactive measure designed to facilitate a political solution by avoiding or limiting violent conflict. It underscores international willingness and commitment to react to a situation, and a concern for civilian populations.
- Preventive Diplomacy
We refer to preventive diplomacy as efforts exerted at the most formal levels of government, between officials representing one of the parties. This process is often called Track One diplomacy. There is also a growing awareness of the importance of Track Two diplomacy, referring to talks or negotiations that take place between middle-level government officials, as well as between cultural or intellectual leaders or NGOs. In contrast to “Track One” diplomacy, this lower-level process does not possess rule-making or decision-making capacities, but can facilitate relations between states, without depending only on the elite.
- Education
Education is one of the means by which the message of peaceful coexistence can be conveyed to the grassroots. This is not an easy task-for most people it means that they have to re-evaluate and re-examine the knowledge that has been part of their reality. One of the most important areas is history, where two groups can have completely separate narratives for the same historic event. Changing the education therefore also requires rewriting books, and re-educating the teachers. A new “Peace curriculum”can also give students tools by which they can resolve conflict by reframing issues in a more manageable, neutral and perhaps a less emotional way. In order to do so it has to deal with the deconstruction of the given basic, and often negative, information about the “other” and provide opportunities for cultural exchanges and dialogues between groups.
- Regime Building
Regimes are ideas or institutions that transcend international boundaries and often manage shared resources and common processes between groups, states or organizations. Regimes can be formal or informal and can facilitate cooperation between parties as well as bind them to certain obligations and tenets that can prevent or limit the resort to violence or other destructive behavior.
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