Conflict Prevention - Context

Introduction
Causes of Conflict
Phases of Conflict
Social Psychology of Conflict Escalation

Introduction

An analysis of the context is necessary to guide the choice of the most effective strategies of intervention to prevent violence. Given a specific context, appropriate early warning signs and indicators can be selected and the suitable tools for intervention can be identified. The context is here defined in terms of the causes of the conflict and the different phases of the cycle of conflict.

Causes of Conflict

Knowledge of the originating factors of a conflict is fundamental in choosing the right tools for prevention and the right targets for intervention. The Conflict Management approach implies looking at the causes while thinking about the solutions. For this reason it is important to identify elements on which it is possible to act, in order to influence the evolution of the conflict. General theories of war that point to structural elements such as anarchy (see Kenneth Waltz) or the security dilemma (see Barry Posen) are not sufficient. Some authors suggest looking for causal chains, as the interconnected factors and events that led to the development of a dispute and then to the ignition of a conflict. Hidemi Suganami recommends asking the question: "How did this particular war come about?" The answer would lead, in the words of John Vasquez, to the definition of "statistically dominant patterns […] each leading to a specific kind of conflict". This kind of analysis helps define different categories of causes, each influencing in a different way the evolution of the conflict. The field of social psychology has also furthered our understanding of the causes of conflict by focusing upon the attitudes and behaviours of individuals and their collectivities. Preventive intervention is more effective when addressing some factors rather than others, each entailing different policy implications. We consider the following categories of causal factors.

Michael Brown distinguishes between:

  • Underlying Causes or Permissive Conditions
  • Proximate Causes, or Triggers

Underlying causes create the conditions that are necessary for a conflict to develop. Permissive conditions can be of different kinds: structural; political; socio-economic; and cultural or perceptual. While the presence of these preconditions determines whether or not a society is conflict-prone, it does not tell anything about when and how the conflict is going to escalate to violence. Conflicts are often an integral part of social dynamics and the engine of social and political development. Only conflicts that turn violent are disruptive and harmful.

Triggers and Proximate causes fuel escalation and determine if and when a conflict will turn violent. These are the variables that must be known to control escalation and that must be targeted in a preventive action. Proximate causes can generally be defined as rapid and unexpected changes in any of the underlying causes. Change acts as a catalytic factor causing the ignition of violent conflict. Brown introduces a further distinction between Mass-factors and Elite-factors. Mass-factors refer to structural, economic, and cultural forces that influence shared perceptions and diffused hostility. Elite-factors refer to the behavior of specific leaders, assigning precise political responsibilities to the promoters of policies that deliberately fuel conflict. These last factors constitute the category of triggers that are more easily recognized, and on which Preventive Diplomacy can focus for effective, punctual interventions. Permissive conditions, conversely, would be the target of initiatives of Structural Prevention.

In a similar way, Michael Lund classifies different factors as:

  • Structural Factors
  • Dynamic Factors

Structural factors produce acts of violence only "remotely and indirectly;" dynamic factors are more "direct and immediate." In every conflict it is possible to define the sources of incompatibilities between different groups, and the "swing factors" that determine whether the dispute will be settled peacefully or will escalate to violence. Lund notices that the definition of the relevant structural factors is not always helpful to policymakers and practitioners that must act with limited resources, in a limited amount of time.

Dynamic factors that influence the evolution of the conflict must be spotted in order to "identify strategic points at which interventions can have real results."

On the basis of this distinction, three categories of causes are listed:

  • Received legacies and socioeconomic conditions - These are factors that are inherited from the past and cannot be changed in the short term.
  • Institutions and political process - Norms and institutions that can be acted upon and changed in the medium term, influencing the behavior of the conflicting parties.
  • Actions of protagonists - Show how groups and their leaders perceive the situation, and how they react to it. These behaviors could be influenced and changed in the short term.

Phases of Conflict

Many authors describe conflict as a cyclical repetition of different phases, with recurring processes of escalation and de-escalation. Distinguishing between these different phases is useful to guide Conflict Prevention. Once the targets of the preventive actions have been defined, the knowledge of the phase of conflict in which we decide to act also has important policy implications. In a conflict there are no clear trajectories, in which distinct phases follow one another in precise order. Nevertheless, it is possible to distinguish more acute and complex moments from more open and flexible ones in which it is easier and less costly to intervene. Given the resources and the tools available, it is possible to decide if and when they can be used effectively. Intervention in the first phases is less costly and more effective, but third parties often lack the information and the incentives to act sooner than later.

Some models of conflict cycles are presented in the ; here we adopt the division of conflict into five phases suggested by Donald Rothchild and Chandra Lekha Sriram. The five phases are: The Potential conflict Phase; The Gestation Phase; The Triggering and Escalation Phase; and the Post-Conflict Phase, which includes a Security-building Phase and an Institution-building Phase.

  • Potential Conflict Phase
    In this phase the conflict is present but at a very low level of intensity. Structural factors and underlying causes fuel division among groups along socio-economic, cultural, and political lines. Elites start mobilizing collective discontent, but without catalyzing it into organized groups. Preventive action at this point is not risky and has high potential payoffs.
  • Gestation Phase
    In the gestation phase contended issues and conflicting groups are more defined. Inter-group relations are politicized and popular mobilization is such that even elites that were not manipulating incompatibilities must react and address popular discontent. As polarization between groups increases, the possibility of violence is higher and small-scale incidents can occur. Crosscutting ties and inter-elite linkages are still present, and issues are still negotiable. The costs of preventive actions are increasing but the potential payoffs are still positive.
  • Triggering and Escalation Phase
    A real or perceived change in the groups’ economic, social, or political conditions can trigger the escalation. The start of mass violence constitutes a fundamental threshold in conflict. Inter-elite ties break down, social interactions focus on organized violence as political exchanges fade. Violence increases; adversaries loose confidence in each other and feel they cannot compromise. Violence makes intervention risky and costly. Even at this point it is possible to act in order to prevent violence to escalate further and eventually spillover to other regions or groups.
  • Post-Conflict Phase
    After the de-escalation of violence, preventive interventions aim at re-establishing peaceful ties and communication channels between the conflicting groups, in order to avoid a new round of violence. The phase can be divided into two separate parts:
    • A short-term Military/Security-Building Phase in which processes of disarmament and demobilization promote new confidence in peace;
    • A long-term Institution Building Phase in which social, political and economic reconstruction contributes to redrawing intergroup relations. Institution building and democratization should lay the foundations of a sustainable peace.

Social Psychology of Conflict Escalation

The field of social psychology offers important insights into the escalation phase of conflicts. For instance, according to Rubin, Pruitt and Kim, escalation occurs when a group is faced with aggression, or when one side perceives the other as the cause for loss or unfulfilled aspirations. Whether conflicts are internal or external, responses to such situations most often lead to actions which exacerbate tensions and result in violence.

Escalation of violence is often described as a security dilemma, the situation that occurs when both sides attempt to pre-empt aggression by the other. Information failures, in which neither side is precisely sure of the plans or intentions of the other, lead defensive actions by one side to be perceived as offensive by the other. Leaders believe that they have no other choice than to match or surpass actions taken by the other, leading to a cycle that can quickly spin out of control.

Identity can also play a key role in the escalation of conflict, when individuals or leadership feel threatened. When threatened, individuals in groups tend to cleave to factors of identity in order to establish a sense of security. According to Lederach (1997), perceived threats encourage people to seek their security in increasingly narrow identity groups. Leadership whose legitimacy is threatened, either by their own actions or by an immediate crisis, can manipulate the identity of its population. Rothchild (Forthcoming) terms the "rallying cry" to be the call of leadership to mobilize along nationalistic terms for collective action.

The evolution of conflict can be attributed to:

  • The role of public opinion and collective moods
    When conflict has a protracted history, it is easier to mobilize public opinion towards escalation rather than de-escalation. Long experience of distrust or conflict means violence can be easily re-ignited.
  • Group Loyalty
    In order to successfully affect their actions, leaders need to mobilize the support of the population. In crises of legitimacy, such mobilization is often completed through the manipulation of identities through nationalistic appeals.
  • Threats to Decision-Making
    Threats from opposition groups or other threats to power often discourage steps towards peace and compromise, as compromise is often perceived as a weakness.
  • Negotiation and Bargaining
    Negotiations are only ever entered into when parties perceive that gains from joining the negotiation are greater than those that would ensue by a continuation of conflict.

Herbert Kelman (1997)