"Turkey, Israel, Azerbaijan: Strategic Shift?" January 20, 2010
“From Rhetoric to Reality: Prospects for Turkey's Future and the AKP’s Authoritarian Tendencies” November 18, 2009
“How Important are the Caucasus and Central Asia to the U.S.? Expert Views on U.S. Strategy from the Region” November 2, 2009
“China and Regional Security in Afghanistan and Pakistan” October 26, 2009
“An IMF View on the Global Economic Crisis in the Caucasus and Central Asia” CACI and IMF Joint Forum, October 21, 2009"Gathering Clouds in Kyrgyzstan" September 14, 2009
Book Presentation and Discussion: The Guns of War of August 2008: Russia's War Against Georgia June 11, 2009
"Yusuf of Balasagun: 11th Century Political Philosopher from Present-day Kyrgyzstan" June 10, 2009
"Central Asian Strategies for Dealing with China" April 29, 2009
Drs. Marlene LaRuelle and Sebastian Peyrouse, Senior Research Fellows, Joint Center of CACI and Silk Road Studies Program
Roger Kangas, professor at the Near East South Asia Center for Strategic Studies at the National Defense University
“What’s at stake at the Manas Airbase?” February 26, 2009
Nothing is clear about the proposal by Kyrgyzstan's President Bakiyev to terminate the US's presence at Manas Airport, outside Bishkek. His motives, Russia's role, the fate of other NATO contingents based there, and the process going forward are all murky or debatable. So is its impact on the US and NATO mission in Afghanistan and on the security and sovereignty of Central Asia itself. These will form the subject of Dr. Stephen J. Blank's presentation and of a commentary by Dr. Evan A. Feigenbaum.
"Turkey and NATO: in the Caucasus, Central Asia and Afghanistan" December 16, 2008
NATO is developing its ties to the states of the South Caucasus, Central Asia, and Afghanistan. Meanwhile, Turkey, its links to Europe unresolved, increasingly looks eastward. Has Turkey found a role as NATO's bridge to the East or is it instead positioning itself between NATO and the West on one hand, and its neighbors to the East, on the other? As Member of the Turkish Parliament and at the same time, Pariamentarian in NATO's Parliamentary Assembly where he heads the Mediterranean and Middle East Special Group, Ambassador Erdem is intimately familiar with the issues that have been discussed at this Forum.
"Dealing with Ethnicities in a Pluralistic Society" November 19, 2008
Many regions of Central Asia and the Caucasus are laboratories of ethnic pluralism. Like aspiring democracies everywhere, they must find means of incorporating everyone into the national polity. In a manner compatible with their aspirations, Kazakhstan's Assembly of People, founded in 1995, is a district effort to solve this conundrum. A member of this body discussed its record at this Forum.
"Prospects for a Torn Turkey: Turkey's Future, and Its Implications for Central Asia, the Caucasus, and the U.S. Interest" November 17, 2008
Turkey has often been mentioned as an emerging key regional power. A secular, democratic republic in the Muslim world, it has long been an important ally of the United States. But, as the Turkish Republic celebrates its 85th anniversary, it is being shaken by a deep regime and identity crisis pitting the ruling Islamic conservatives of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) against secular opposition. Meanwhile, Turkey's foreign policy is evolvingand its traditional alignment with NATO and the West in international crises may no longer be taken for granted. In the decade ahead, what kind of a Turkey can we expect? How will the forces of religious conservatism and secularism interact, and what are its implications for Turkey’s democracy and foreign policy? These questions will be discussed with the two speakers drawing from their recently published Silk Road Paper Prospects for a Torn Turkey, (http://www.silkroadstudies.org/new/docs/silkroadpapers/0810Turkey.pdf) The speakersspecifically addressed implications of Turkey’s evolution for Central Asia, the Caucasus, and for American interests in these regions.
"Central Asia and Caucasus after the August War" November 5, 2008
The full implications of recent events in Georgia are only now beginning to emerge. Five talented young leaders from the regions, participants of a fellowship program at CACI, funded by Rumsfeld Foundation, presented their insights and opinions on this issue.
Click hereto download an audio file of this event.
"Azerbaijan's Forthcoming Presidential Elections in the Context of National and Regional Developments" October 10, 2008
Azerbaijan's forthcoming elections occur at a dramatic moment. Rapid economic development and political evolution in Azerbaijan itself, combined with recent events in Georgia give particular importance to these elections and associated debate. Three experts considered these issues focusing particularly on the current electoral season.
Click hereto download an audio file of this event.
"Policy Recommendations for the Incoming Administration Concerning Asia and Afghanistan" October 1, 2008
America's presence in the formerly Soviet areas of Central Asia has waned, even as concern over its mission in Afghanistan has mounted. How should the incoming administration address these challenges, especially in the face of post-Georgia realities? S. Frederick Starr, chairman of CACI, discussed these and related issues, drawing on his recently published essay on the subject. Click hereto download an audio file of this event.
"A Report on the "EU-Central Asia Security Forum" Just Held in Paris" September 24, 2008
On September 18,the EU and Central Asian states held a Forum on security challenges in the region. This came on the heels both of the EU’s expanded engagement with Central Asia and of the recent events in Georgia. Hon. Pierre Moreladdressed these and other issues pertaining to EU’s ties with CA.
Click hereto download an audio file of this event.
"Policy Recommendations for the United States and the EU regarding South Caucasus: Georgia and Beyond" September 17, 2008
Even before the Russian invasion of Georgia, the Caucasus presented a serious policy challenge to both the US and EU. Now the situation has grown yet more grave. Moreover, any policy towards this region will inevitably affect other areas as far afield as Europe, Central Asia, the Middle East and Afghanistan. Dr. Svante Cornell and Col. Jon Chicky,took up these issues, drawing on their extensive recent experience in the civilian and military spheres.
Study and analysis of Central Asia since independence has focused more on politics than economics, to the detriment of our understanding of the region. One of the few to keep a steady watch over economic reforms and development has been Dr. Richard Pomfret. In this timely and important CACI Forum presentation on Turkmenistan, Dr. Pomfret focused on the post-Niyazov era and offered updates to his observations of a decade and a half on energy issues, including Turkmenistan's role in natural gas supply to Russia, Europe, China and South Asia.
Kazakhstan, like other countries of Greater Central Asia, faces formidable geo-political challenges. For a decade, however, it has addressed them with notable success. Indeed, its "multi-vectored" or balanced approach is being widely emulated in the region. Richard Weitz, Senior Fellow and Director of Program Management at the Hudson Institute in Washington DC discussed this topic on the basis of his newly published Silk Road paper.
"WTO Accession: Kazakhstan's Prospects, Kyrgyzstan's Reality" June 4, 2008
Membership in the World Trade Organization is often seen as a key indicator of an economy's modernity. This Forum focused on Kazakhstan's current prospects of accession and its expectations regarding WTO, and also looked at the experience in WTO of Kyrgyzstan, to-date the organization's first and only Central Asian member country. The Hon. Ms. Aitzhanova, a leading negotiator for Kazakhstan, H.E. Idrissov, Ambassador of Kazakhstan, and Mr. Veale, Executive Director of the US-Kazakhstan Business Association, offered their views.
"New Developments in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization" May 22, 2008
Dr. Guang, one of China's leading scholars and advisors on Shanghai Cooperation affairs, assessed the current status and impending prospects of that organization.
"Renewable Energy in Uzbekistan:a key to future development? May 21, 2008
Even Central Asia, with its oil and gas, must look beyond dependence on these sources of energy. What then are the prospects for renewable energy in the region? Will Uzbekistan succeed in becoming the regional engine for renewable energy?
" Parliament and Political Parties in Kazakhstan" April 30, 2008
Kazakhstan's successful bid for the OSCE presidency prompts important questions about the prospects for parliaments, political parties, and democratic rule generally in post-Communist societies, and especially in societies with majority Muslim populations. Anthony Bowyer of the International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES) examined the Kazakhstan case and offered a concise monograph on this timely subject which was recently published by the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute as a Silk Road Paper.
"Russian Nationalism and Central Asia" April 23, 2008
For more than a century Russia, and then USSR, exerted imperial rule over much of Central Asia, excluding Afghanistan. Since independence, Russian opinion-makers often treat the region simply as a source of problems: Islamists, drugs, unwelcome immigrants, terrorists, etc. At the same time many Russian elites have nurtured hopes of renewing Russia's dominant geopolitical role in the region. This presentation, based on extensive interviews in both Russian and Central Asia,looked to identify Russia's fears and aspirations as regards Central Asia and both "hard" and "soft" tools for achieving them.
"Recent Russian Policies in Georgia: How Should the West Respond?" April 22, 2008
On April 16, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree paving the way for the opening of direct relations between Russian and the separatist government of Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Georgia. These steps follow several years of increasingly assertive Russian policies in the conflict zone. The decree, coming immediately after the NATO Bucharest summit and shortly following the resolution of the Kosovo issue, has led to widespread international condemnation. There have been few indications of what concrete steps the West should take in response, something this Forum event addressed.
"Fergana Valley: a microcosm of problems and potential in the region" March 26, 2008
Fergana Valley is quite literally the heart of Central Asia, a microcosm of the region's problems and also of its prospects. The Central Asia-Caucasus Institute, backed by the Sasakawa Peace Foundation USA, has undertaken a multi-year analysis of the region's past, present and possible future. Twenty-four scholars from Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan have teamed up to carry out the study. Dr. Shozimov, a leading Tajik academician and one of the national editors of the study, reported on its findings to-date. In addition, he offered his own observations as an anthropologist and ethnographer.
"From Illicit to Licit Livelihoods: Understanding the Changing Role of Opium in Rural Livelihoods in Afghanistan and One Possible Alternative Crop" March 12, 2008
To complement the recent floods of reports and policy recommendations on the "macro" aspects of narcotics in Afghanistan, the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute presented a "micro" view of what motivates opium-growing farmers and one approach to persuading them to grow an alternative crop. David Mansfield's field survey in Afghanistan have made him the recognized expert on the village-level opium economy. He has spent 10 years conducting research on the subject and is a co-author of the new World bank/DFID report "Afghanistan: Economic Incentives and Development Initiatives to Reduce Opium Production." as well as many studies on the village economy. Much of his recent research has been in northern Afghanistan in areas close to the former Soviet Central Asian republics. Keith Disselkoen was a USAID contractor in rural Afghanistan focusing on expanding the growing of traditional Afghan crops of fruits and nuts, including both the horticultural and marketing aspects of the problem.
This event was off the record.
"Kazakhstan's Emerging Middle Class" March 5, 2008
Kazakhstan has become the first country in Central Asia and the Caucasus to develop a substantial middle class. What is its size and what are its sources of support? Where does it live and what are its cultural and political aspirations? Thisis the theme of a new Silk Road Paper by Dr. John Daly,thepresenter, whose long career as scholar (at Central Asia/Caucasus Institute), journalist/commentator (BBC World Service, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, Al-Arabiya, CNN, etc.), teacher (Kansas State University, 1987-97), and consultant has focused on Central Asia and the Caucasus.
"Gawadar Deep Sea Port, a New Transportation Hub for Central Asia" February 13, 2008
Pakistan's new deep sea port at Gawadar (Gwadar), the first stage of which was built with Chinese support, could provide the shortest route between the land-locked countries of Central Asia and the Indian sub-continent and Southeast Asia. But issues of security, infrastructure, and bureaucracy must still be overcome before this becomes a reality. These and related questions were addressed by H. E. Mahmud Ali Durrani, Ambassador of Pakistan to the U.S.
To now, discussion on radical Islamists has focused on impoverished areas and cells among students and young professionals. At this Forum, a noted American specialist,Dr.MarthaBrillOlcottpresented the case that the real focus has shifted to civil services and government bureaucracies.
Dr. Olcott received her PhD from the University of Chicago and is professor emerita at Colgate University. In addition to her work for Carnegie Endowment, Washington, she also co-directs the institution's Moscow Center Project on Religion, Society, and Security in the former Soviet Union. She is author of a vast body of books and articles and appears frequently on television and radio news programs and talk shows.
"Pakistan and Central Asia: Post-Bhutto Implications" January 25, 2008
Few doubt that the assassination of Benazir Bhutto alters the internal politics and geopolitical prospects of Pakistan. But in what direction? A member of Ms. Butto's party, Honorable Senator Dr. Javaid Laghari of Pakistan People's Partyoffered his views on the topic focusing on Pakistan's future relationship with Afghanistan and the rest of Central Asia.
"Directions in Language Policy and Practice in Central Asia and South Caucasus" January 22, 2008
New nations generally embrace the local language(s) as a symbol of independence and as a tool of communication among citizens. How has this process worked in Central Asia and South Caucasus? What gaps exist between policy and practice? Two recognized experts,Dr. William Fierman, Indiana University andDr.DanDavidson,BrynMawrUniversity,shared their thoughts on the topic.
"CAREC: a coming force in regional affairs?" January 8, 2008
Central Asia has turned from depressed, land-locked region in the 1990s into a dynamic region at the hub of the rapidly growing Eurasian economy. Regional cooperation and coordination within Central Asia and of Central Asia with its neighbors is intensifying. Various regional organizations play an active role in supporting this process, including the Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation Program (CAREC). CAREC brings together eight countries and six multilateral institutions. It focuses principally on investments, regulation and monitoring in the transport, trade and energy sectors in the region. Johannes Linn, who serves as CAREC Special Adviser, explained the history and role of CAREC, its relationship with other regional organizations and with the international community, and explored the challenges CAREC faces in supporting cooperation and coordination in Central Asia.
"Kyrgyzstan's South: Zone of Problem or Potential?" December 12, 2007
Few regions in Central Asia have produced as many warnings of impeding crises or as fulsome predictions of future development and prosperity as the South of Kyrgyzstan. Is it a backwater, spreading social and political problems northward to Bishkek and to its neighbors, or is it a region of hidden but soon-to-be realized potential? Three experts offered concrete evidence on both sides of this issue.
"Georgia's Crisis:what's behind it and where to go from here? December 6, 2007
Four years after the Rose revolution, Georgia faced its first major internal challenge in early November. Even as large-scale demonstrations against the government were petering out, they resulted in violent clashes between police and die-hard demonstrators. The government announced a state of emergency and closed down an opposition-controlled television channel. Meanwhile, President Saakashvili announced he would step down for snap presidential elections, while putting the date of parliamentary elections up to public referendum.
What does this mean for Georgia's development as the poster-child of reform and democracy in the post-Soviet space? What were the causes of the crisis and its handling? What are its implications for Georgia's Euro-Atlantic integration, its tense relations with Russia, and its unresolved conflicts?
"Does Turkey have a future in Central Asia? The Caucasus?" November 19, 2007
Turkey, in many senses, is at a crossroads today. Its close but more complex relation to Europe and America, its elected government that challenges traditions of secularism, security concerns on its border with Iraq, its growing potential as a major transport and energy corridor---all come into play. How will these and other changes affect the prospects for Turkish policy in the Caucasus and in Central Asia/Afghanistan? Will Turkey cut back its involvement with these regions, leave it about the same, or generate anew activism there?
It is well known that Sufism, the highly diverse, mystical form of Islam, arose significantly in Central Asia and still thrives in that region in various forms. But what particular practices of Sufism trace to specific parts of Central Asia? What are the implications of that geography?
Our guest speaker, Dr. Elyor Karimov, now a short-term scholar at the Kennan Institute, is an Orientalist-Historian-Iranist who completed his degree in this field and in law at the Tashkent State Institute of Oriental Studies. He is a leading authority on Sufism and a specialist in the field of Sufi tariqats history studies in Central Asia. He has published widely in his field of research. In his home country, Dr. Karimov heads the Department of Medieval and Ancient History, Institute of History, Uzbek Academy of Sciences and also chairs the Uzbek National Society of Young Scientists there.
"Armenian resolutions: symbols or substance? Implications for the Caucasus neighborhood and for European and American relations there" October 31, 2007
In 1998, the French National Assembly passed a resolution calling the 1915-17 mass killing of Armenians "genocide". Russia, Canada, and Greece have likewise named it so. In 2006, the French Parliament made it a crime for anyone to deny "the Armenian genocide". Earlier this month in the U.S., the House Foreign Affairs Committee passed a resolution on "Armenian genocide".
These resolutions have been debated, pro and con, from many perspectives; moral, political, etc. What has not been considered it their specific impact on the Caucasus and related regions. This narrower question, rather than the politics of the resolutions themselves was discussed.
"A Decade of Peace in Tajikistan: Who Should Get the Credit?" October 17, 2007
This year markes the 10th anniversary of national reconciliation in Tajikistan that pu an end to civil war between the Tajik government and the Tajik Opposition. In many respects Tajikistan today is a success story of political, economic, and social development, though societal cleavages persist. What were the respective roles of the UN, other nations, and the Tajiks themselves in bringing peace and stability in the country, and what are the chances that this success will be sustainable over the long term? Dr. Vladimir Sotirov, Representative of the UN Secretary-General for Tajikistan presentedwhile Ambassador (ret.) Grant Smith and Daniel Kimmage, Regional Analyst at RFE/RL provided comments.
"Enhancing Investment and Competitiveness in Central Asia and South Caucasus: Proposals for Action" October 9, 2007
There are as many plans for economic development in Central Asia and the Caucasus as there are organizations promoting them. Two institutions significantly engaged with the issue, but less known in the U.S. are the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Islamic Development Bank Group (IDBG). At this CACI Forum, senior representatives of both organizations, Dr. Rainer Geiger, Deputy Director of Financial and Enterprise Affairs at the OECD and Mr. Torek R. Farhadi, Head of Investment Promotion Technical Assistance Program at the IDBG, shared their insights on national and regional development.
"State of the Uzbek Economy Today" October 3, 2007
For many years after independence, the Uzbek economy soared while those of its neighbors languished. Today the tempo has declined, notwithstanding certain areas of productivity and growth. What policies is Uzbekistan currently following to lift its economic performance and what are the prospects for success? Dr. Martin C. Spechler, holder of an M.A. and a PH.D in Economics from Harvard University discussed this topic. He is a leading authority on economic development in Central Asia, and an author of numerous publications, on Uzbekistan in particular. He is currently doing research for a book on the reasoning behind the differing economic strategies adopted by the various Central Asian states.
"Central Asian Women: Full Participants Yet?" September 26, 2007
This forum is dedicated to a discussion on changing political environments for Central Asian women in the independence period. The speakers discussed how reforms in education, health care, and the evolution of religious norms have shaped women's family and professional lives. They looked at the causes of political and economic empowerment and disempowerment of Central Asian women. The discussion also touched upon the issues of polygamy, women's right to own property, and the effects of labor migration on family life.
Thanks to an ample supply of oil and gas and to laws that have encouraged foreign investment, Kazakhstan’s economy has grown rapidly, creating an expanding middle class and new public expectations in many spheres. The government meanwhile seeks to diversify the economy and to open more channels for elective bodies to participate in decision making. Abroad, it has pursued a foreign policy based on balanced strategic partnerships with China, Russia, and the United States. Ambassador Idrissov helped us understand recent initiatives undertaken by his government and the thinking underlying them. Click hereto download audio for this event.
"The New Silk Roads: Transport and Trade in Greater Central Asia" July 18, 2007
With the collapse of the Soviet Union, China's decision to open trade across its western border and the gradual return of Afghanistan to the community of nations, continental trade spanning the entire Eurasian land mass is again becoming possible. "The New Silk Roads: Transport and Trade in Greater Central Asia" documents this possibility. Authors of six of the chapters will make presentations, and Trade Ministers or Trade Ministry representatives from Central Asia, who will be in Washington for other meetings, are expected to comment as well.
John Daly, an expert on Central Asia and the former Soviet Union and M. Chris Mason, a Senior Fellow at the Center for Advanced Defense Studies in Washington DC and a retired Service Officer offered an explanation for the clashes involving both tribal groups and remnants of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan in Waziristan, on the Pakistani side of the Afghanistan-Pakistan border this past spring. Further, they discussed how Uzbeks got there and the implications of the clashes for their movement and for Afghanistan.
"Tajikistan's Macroeconomic Situation" May 9, 2007
The Ambassador of Tajikistan, Abdujabbor Shirinov, previously First Deputy Chairman of the National Bank of Tajikistan, spoke, basis of his background there, on the Tajikistan's Macroeconomic Situation. Click hereto download audio for this event.
"Does Japan Matter to Central Asia?" April 25, 2007
Ambassador Akio Kawato is a visiting professor at Waseda University in Japan after a career representing Japan abroad that included serving as Japanese Ambassador to Uzbekistan and Tajikistan from 2002-2004. He discussed this topic.
"Kyrgyzstan: The Last Chance for Freedom in Central Asia" March 28, 2007
Bakyt Beshimov, vice president for academic affairs at the American University of Central Asia and former Krygyz ambassador to several South Asian countries, Anara Tabyshalieva, a scholar from the Kyrgyzstan Institute for Regional Studies, and Frederick Starr (moderator), CACI chairman, discussed this topic.
The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this presentation are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect institutional positionsand policies of the World Bank.
4. W.P.Carey Forum - "Polling in Central Asia"
Johannes Linn, Brookings Institution, Anthony Bowyer, IFES
Baktybek Abdrisaev, former Kyrgyz Republic ambassador to the United States; Baktybek Beshimov, Member of the Kyrgyz Republic parliament; Robin N. Phillips, former policy analyst for the U.S. Joint Staff; and Anthony C. Bowyer, program manager for Caucasus and Central Asia at the International Foundation for Electoral Systems, discussed this topic.
